Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Will the Manmohan Government Fall on the Indo-US Nuclear Deal?

A change of Atlases holding the Government: As the left parties call it quits, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party takes over the role of supporting party to keep the Manmohan Singh Governmnt going: news

THERE IS real suspense as to what will happen as the Prime Minister returns from his G 8 sojourn later today and the real war for numbers begin in the corridors of power. It seems the Congress leadership is thinking of going for a floor test to exhibit its strength and public support on July 28 when the Indo-US nuclear deal would be taken up by the International Atomic Energy Agency for its ratification.

As for the numbers, it would seem that the Congress and its allies have nothing much to worry about. The principal opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, has already made it clear that it would not go for a no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha. It is a change of strategy for the party which realizes that once it goes for the no-confidence motion, that would automatically help bridge a gap that has developed between the left and Congress. It would be suicidal for the CPM, CPI and other left parties joining hands with the BJP to bring this Government down.

So what is the left strategy? They will remain a powerful and vocal opposition and will go against the Manmohan Singh Government tooth and nail, both inside the House and outside it. But they will not be a party to the pulling down of the Government; because by such an action they would be only helping bring in a BJP government closer home. They do not want such a thing to happen at all. So they will oppose, attack and tear the government to pieces; but will see that it survives its full term.

Then what will be the Government’s strategy? The Government will possibly go for a trust vote as soon as possible, because they do need to recharge their batteries. With the BJP and the left parties claiming that there is no majority support in Parliament for the Indo-US nuclear deal, it is urgently necessary for the United Progressive Alliance to prove that this is not the case. So they will seek a trust vote, point blank on the issue of Indo-US nuclear deal possibly on July 28 itself.

Will they win such a trust vote, now that media reports say the Samajwadi Party is heading for a split with some MPs opposing the decision to support the Government on the deal?

They will win the trust vote because the left will find a way out not joining the BJP in the House to bring the Government down; the Samajwadi Party may be able to contain the dissidents and finally the realization that the political deadlock could lead to a sudden collapse leading to a by-poll in which the principal beneficiary would be the BJP would help work out some behind-the-scene deals between the now estranged friends in the Congress and left parties.

(Cartoon courtesy: Sudheernath, New Delhi.)

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